Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $40,999$ on 2020-10-28

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $493$ on 2020-10-28

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,736$ on 2020-10-28

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $135,658$ on 2020-10-28

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,158$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,994.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,994.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $68,400$ on 2020-10-28

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $589,766$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{432,695.1}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 118.2)}}\) (asimptote \(432,695.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $37,905$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,215.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 47.4)}}\) (asimptote \(35,215.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $276,457$ on 2020-10-28

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,856,413$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,732,408.4}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 155.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,732,408.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $227,685$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{220,828.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 96.2)}}\) (asimptote \(220,828.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,110,588$ on 2020-10-28

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $945,378$ on 2020-10-28

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $45,765$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,485.7}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(41,485.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $896,840$ on 2020-10-28

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $117,913$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,914.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 105.3)}}\) (asimptote \(96,914.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,927$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,800.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 52.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,800.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $111,986$ on 2020-10-28

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $486,972$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,131,948.1}{1 + 10^{-0.003 (t - 333.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,131,948.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,259$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,226.2}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,226.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $139,949$ on 2020-10-28

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Qatar recovered 92%
Chile recovered 90%
Saudi Arabia recovered 87%
Nigeria recovered 86%
Senegal recovered 84%
Israel recovered 83%
United Arab Emirates recovered 77%
Uzbekistan recovered 76%
El Salvador recovered 71%
Burkina Faso recovered 69%
Maldives recovered 69%
Bolivia recovered 63%
Venezuela recovered 62%
Tajikistan recovered 61%
Bahrain recovered 57%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 50%
India recovered 41%
Cabo Verde recovered 34%
Bangladesh recovered 33%
Montenegro recovered 19%
Iceland recovered 15%
Nepal recovered 15%
Ethiopia recovered 4%

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $131,939$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{122,510.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 97.1)}}\) (asimptote \(122,510.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $230$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{215.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 93.9)}}\) (asimptote \(215.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,825$ on 2020-10-28

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $505,530$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{463,461.6}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 110.6)}}\) (asimptote \(463,461.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $14,032$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,015.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 109.9)}}\) (asimptote \(13,015.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,592$ on 2020-10-28

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $346,047$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{337,750.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 106.2)}}\) (asimptote \(337,750.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,348$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,376.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 123.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,376.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,149$ on 2020-10-28

Nigeria⮸

Population $206,139,589$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $62,371$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{61,089.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 98.6)}}\) (asimptote \(61,089.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,139$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,125.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 70.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,125.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,137$ on 2020-10-28